Iran’s allies squeeze Saudi Arabia ‘on all fronts’

{"text":[[{"start":7.48,"text":"As Iran-backed Houthi rebels swept down Yemen’s Red Sea coast last week, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump to seek US support stemming the militants’ advance."}],[{"start":19.08,"text":"The Houthis were closing in on the Bab al-Mandeb, the narrow strait that has become crucial for Saudi crude exports since Iran throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They were also firing waves of missiles and drones at energy facilities in Saudi Arabia’s southern provinces. And an attack from the north, by Shia militants in Iraq, forced the closure of a vital oil pipeline."}],[{"start":40.8,"text":"But when Trump spoke publicly about the Houthi threat, he appeared unperturbed. The Houthis, whom Trump designated a terrorist group in both his terms, had called Washington to say “they don’t want to fight with us”, he claimed."}],[{"start":53.16,"text":"“They don’t want us to go after them,” Trump said on Saturday during a visit to Ireland. “They’re letting most ships go through. There’s just one country that they’re not too happy with, and we’ll get that straightened out.”"}],[{"start":65.04,"text":"Riyadh has grown used to the president’s unpredictability. But Trump’s seemingly casual response to the brewing crisis for Saudi Arabia, despite the boost it gives Iran’s efforts to keep energy prices high, will have only deepened frustration over the US war against Iran."}],[{"start":80.72,"text":"Saudi Arabia is now grappling with the very regional chaos Prince Mohammed had warned Trump about, caught between the emboldened, battle-hardened Houthis and the threat of militant attacks from Iraq, where Iranian-backed Shia militias and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are active."}],[{"start":95.92,"text":"This has spawned arguably the biggest test for Prince Mohammed since the 2018 murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents briefly turned him into a pariah in the west. It threatens both the kingdom’s ability to sell crude and the crown prince’s ambitious, petrodollar-funded drive to develop his nation into a global investment hub."}],[{"start":115.2,"text":"The kingdom “is challenged in so many more ways” than in 2018, said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House. “MBS has few good options,” he said. “This is a test on all fronts. This is a test of his leadership in the kingdom . . . this is a security and economic challenge.”"}],[{"start":133.08,"text":"While the relationship with Washington is strong, “it’s clear the US is not going to come in and support it”."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":138.96,"text":"Saudi oil production had already fallen to 6.2mn barrels a day in August, its lowest level for 36 years, according to data submitted to oil producer group Opec, because of the challenges of getting tankers through the Hormuz Strait and Bab al-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia, long the world’s largest crude exporter, is currently shipping less than half as much as the US."}],[{"start":160.2,"text":"The East-West pipeline, which has a maximum capacity of up to 7mn barrels a day, became vital for its exports after Iran began attacking shipping in the Hormuz Strait."}],[{"start":170.12,"text":"With its closure, analysts at consultancy Energy Aspects now expect the Yanbu and Petro Rabigh oil refineries on Saudi Arabia’s western coast to start cutting production imminently. Stocks of oil at the shipping terminal in Yanbu “will only sustain a few days of crude loadings”, they said."}],[{"start":187.02,"text":"To try to compensate, state oil company Saudi Aramco could try to step up exports through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US military escorts. But that comes with its own risks, as Iran continues to attack tankers."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":199.9,"text":"Prince Mohammed, who spearheaded Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the civil war in Yemen in 2015 to lead a coalition against the Houthis, had spent the past four years seeking to extract the kingdom from the hugely costly conflict in Yemen."}],[{"start":213.6,"text":"A 2022 ceasefire largely held until July, when the Houthis announced they would impose a blockade on Saudi ports and made demands that included paying salaries in areas under Houthi control, giving the rebels access to Yemen’s oil revenues and paying compensation for war losses."}],[{"start":230.08,"text":"That left Riyadh — which considered the Houthis’ demands tantamount to extortion — weighing whether it should escalate and risk more Houthi assaults on its oil facilities or push for a new truce."}],[{"start":240.48,"text":"“Riyadh has faced a policy dilemma,” said Firas Maksad, managing director of the Middle East at Eurasia Group. “It cannot submit to growing Houthi demands under military pressure, but it also cannot afford an escalation that results in a two-front war that could cost it half of Aramco’s production.”"}],[{"start":257.92,"text":"Saudi Arabia has for months been arming and training factions aligned to Yemen’s internationally recognised government in preparation for a Houthi escalation. It has also sought to deepen alliances to counter the threat."}],[{"start":270.32,"text":"Last month, it said more than a dozen nations had joined a maritime coalition to safeguard shipping through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb. Prince Mohammed also signed an agreement in August in which Turkey, a Nato member, joined a mutual defence pact that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a year ago."}],[{"start":287.54,"text":"The crown prince had even secured a defence agreement with the US when he visited the White House last November."}],[{"start":293.16,"text":"But none of these agreements have deterred the Houthis, and analysts say it is unlikely that either Turkey or Pakistan would put boots on the ground in Yemen."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":302.465,"text":"The US is supporting Saudi forces with targeting and intelligence as the kingdom launches air strikes against Houthi positions in Yemen."}],[{"start":310,"text":"Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of the US military’s Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, held talks with Prince Mohammed on Monday to discuss the “latest regional developments”, the Saudi state news agency said, without providing more details."}],[{"start":324.96,"text":"But Trump has his own chequered history with the Houthis, who control the Yemeni capital Sana’a and much of the populous north, and receive weapons and technology from Iran."}],[{"start":335,"text":"After the Houthis began disrupting shipping through the Red Sea in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel, Trump ordered an intense bombing campaign against the rebels and warned that “hell would rain down” on them unless they stopped attacking vessels."}],[{"start":351.16,"text":"Yet after about seven weeks, during which the Houthis continued to attack merchant shipping and target US naval vessels, the president called a halt and said a ceasefire had been reached. Trump even appeared impressed with their resilience, praising their “bravery” and ability to “take a lot of punishment”."}],[{"start":366.84,"text":"With the US now bogged down in the months-long war with Iran — putting a significant burden on its forces — analysts say it is even less likely Washington would intervene directly."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":377.72,"text":"A diplomat said Riyadh had requested US air cover but Washington responded that it was not willing to intervene at present as it was focused on the war with Iran."}],[{"start":387.88,"text":"“Trump’s reluctance to get directly involved in the Yemen war is no surprise to the Saudi crown prince,” Maksad said. He added that Riyadh was also wary of getting sucked into a deeper conflict in Yemen, saying that “maintaining its ability to produce and export its oil is exponentially more important than a quick victory against the Houthis”."}],[{"start":408.04,"text":"A senior Trump administration official said last week that Washington was “in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia . . . regarding regional stability”."}],[{"start":417.32,"text":"Bernard Haykel, a professor of near eastern studies at Princeton University, who speaks to Prince Mohammed, said: “It’s a very big crisis, with a real threat from the south and the north, and the east,” a reference to Iran, which has fired missiles and drones at the kingdom during its war with the US. Haykel said he believes Prince Mohammed wants to negotiate with Tehran. But “with the Houthis he’s much more aggressive and wants to see them cut down to size, the problem is the forces he’s supported against the Houthis have turned out to be useless,” he added."}],[{"start":449.76,"text":"For now, the disparate and fragmented Yemeni factions Riyadh backs are attempting to push back against the Houthis, supported by Saudi air strikes, analysts say."}],[{"start":459.52,"text":"Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said the front lines along Yemen’s southern coast have stabilised in recent days, with the area around Bab al-Mandeb a “no man’s land”."}],[{"start":472.24,"text":"“There are scenarios where a Saudi-led coalition can push back against the Houthis, but right now we are at a best-case scenario of stabilising front lines,” he said. “I don’t think the Saudis will do a deal, right now, because the Houthis’ conditions are complete submission.”"}],[{"start":487.96,"text":"“If you do a deal with them today, there’s no guarantee they won’t be asking for more tomorrow.”"}],[{"start":493.04,"text":"Additional reporting by Malcolm Moore in London"}],[{"start":500.08,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789469542_5792.mp3"}