Latin America’s shallow shift to the right - FT中文网
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FT观点

Latin America’s shallow shift to the right

Colombia and other recent polls highlight polarisation rather than a decisive swing
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{"text":[[{"start":5.85,"text":"With his rival now conceding defeat in Sunday’s presidential run-off, Colombia’s Abelardo de la Espriella has become the latest rightwing populist to sweep to power in Latin America. Modelling himself on both El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Argentina’s Javier Milei, de la Espriella has promised to build a series of mega-prisons to house drug traffickers and to cut the size of the Colombian state by 40 per cent. "}],[{"start":33.1,"text":"His victory extends a series of successes for rightwing candidates in the region, from Chile to Honduras to Bolivia in recent months, many of them running on Donald Trump-like themes. Indeed, of the past 15 presidential elections in Latin America, candidates of the right or centre-right have won 12."}],[{"start":51.8,"text":"Many of these rightwing candidates have been helped by strong structural forces. Electorates across the region are irate at the seemingly unchallenged growth of organised crime groups. In some countries, the rise of evangelical churches has dovetailed with greater social conservatism. The three most radical leftwing governments in the region — Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua — have, meanwhile, been such abject failures that they have tarnished the image of many of the more moderate leftwing governments. "}],[{"start":80.85,"text":"Yet it is increasingly clear that these victories do not add up to a new ideological wave of support for a rightwing agenda, especially on the economy. In the 1990s, voters ushered in a series of governments across the region that pushed deep reforms, opening to foreign trade and privatising state-owned businesses. Apart from steps to tackle violence and crime, there is much less appetite now for anything so ambitious. "}],[{"start":109.19999999999999,"text":"The constraints of the current political environment have been evident in two of the countries that held recent elections. In Chile, José Antonio Kast took office in March but saw his approval rating plummet within just a few weeks after he refused to use public spending to limit fuel price rises caused by the Iran war."}],[{"start":129.29999999999998,"text":"In Bolivia, centre-right president Rodrigo Paz thought he had a mandate to reduce fuel subsidies after bringing an end to nearly two decades of socialist governments. But in recent weeks the capital La Paz has been brought to a standstill by protests and blockades led by labour and farming unions. "}],[{"start":146.49999999999997,"text":"In Colombia, de la Espriella is also promising to slash public spending but has given few indications of where he intends to find the savings. A former criminal lawyer, he has no administrative experience and has shown disdain for the traditional parties whose support in Congress he will now need. "}],[{"start":164.94999999999996,"text":"The one striking exception is Milei, Argentina’s iconoclastic libertarian, who has implemented dramatic spending cuts since taking over in 2023 and yet still saw his party emerge stronger from legislative elections in October. But the willingness of Argentine voters to accept his radical approach was shaped by the desperate economic circumstances he inherited, with inflation over 200 per cent. "}],[{"start":190.04999999999995,"text":"If anything, the most recent elections have demonstrated extreme polarisation rather than a lasting shift to the right. In the end, de la Espriella won by less than one percentage point — the narrowest win in Colombia’s modern history. "}],[{"start":204.94999999999996,"text":"In Peru’s presidential election, the race is so tight that two and a half weeks after the run-off vote on June 7, a victor has yet to be declared with the last few votes still being counted. Keiko Fujimori, another rightwing populist, is eventually expected to win, but is currently just 43,000 votes ahead of her leftwing rival. Rather than signalling a rightwing wave, the results from both elections suggest they are countries with a sharp political division. Both could easily now descend into gridlock. "}],[{"start":242.94999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782355604_5065.mp3"}

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