Pro-independence parties bank on rethink of UK ‘status quo’ after May 7

{"text":[[{"start":12.4,"text":"As Labour prepares to suffer heavy losses in local councils in England on May 7, another kind of upset is brewing across the rest of the UK. "}],[{"start":22.200000000000003,"text":"With less than two weeks until local elections day, the chance of all three devolved governments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland being led by parties seeking to break up the UK is coming into view. "}],[{"start":33.800000000000004,"text":"According to the polls, the Scottish National Party, in power since 2007, is on the cusp of a fifth consecutive term on the back of voter disdain with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and a unionist bloc fractured by an insurgent Reform UK. "}],[{"start":51.35000000000001,"text":"In Cardiff, Plaid Cymru is vying with Reform UK to become the biggest party in the Welsh Senedd, which would break Labour’s control for the first time since devolution in 1999. "}],[{"start":63.650000000000006,"text":"At Stormont, the power-sharing executive has a first minister from Sinn Féin, which remains six points ahead of the Democratic Unionist Party, the largest pro-UK group. Elections are not due until the middle of next year."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":78.25,"text":"“The status quo is not sustainable, and the results will bear that out on May 7,” said Angus Robertson, SNP campaign director and cabinet secretary for the constitution. “There is going to have to be some quick rethinking in Whitehall and Westminster about dealing with other nations.”"}],[{"start":97.95,"text":"Yet for all their likely success next month, none of the three parties has a short-term roadmap for breaking up the UK."}],[{"start":104.7,"text":"John Swinney, SNP leader and first minister, said winning a majority of 65 seats at Holyrood would provide a mandate for a second independence referendum, which the party hopes will mobilise its core vote after a series of scandals. "}],[{"start":120.4,"text":"The logic is that a precedent was set ahead of the 2014 referendum — in which independence was rejected by 55 per cent to 45 per cent — because of the SNP majority secured in 2011, even though the electoral system militates against majority rule."}],[{"start":137.20000000000002,"text":"Another unlikely majority would add to pressure on Westminster to heed the SNP’s demand. However, while public opinion on the constitutional question has remained evenly split in recent years, fewer are keen on another referendum in the short term."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":151.50000000000003,"text":"“As the SNP looks set to see its vote go down, possibly considerably, even if it remains the largest party, then the ‘mandate’ for another referendum would lack credibility,” said James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh university."}],[{"start":167.75000000000003,"text":"“The SNP has every reason to play up the issue to appeal to its core,” he added. “But if it was serious about another referendum, then it would address the weaknesses that became obvious in its 2014 prospectus.”"}],[{"start":181.30000000000004,"text":"In Wales, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth’s softly-softly approach promises no referendum on independence during the first four-year term. "}],[{"start":190.20000000000005,"text":"The party has vowed to set up a “national commission for Wales”, which it said could eventually lay “the foundations for a future white paper on Welsh independence”. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":199.65000000000003,"text":"One ally of ap Iorwerth, whose predecessor in 2021 promised a referendum within five years, said what would happen beyond 2029 was an open question. “Rhun has made it very clear that he will be guided by the people of Wales,” the person said. "}],[{"start":216.75000000000003,"text":"If Plaid wins the Senedd elections, ap Iorwerth will call for greater powers for the Welsh government, which was set up with fewer levers than its Scottish counterpart, in a push to “resettle” Wales’s relationship with Westminster. "}],[{"start":230.90000000000003,"text":"Jac Larner, lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, said support for independence had recently hovered at about 30 per cent in Wales, having jumped after the Brexit vote. "}],[{"start":240.90000000000003,"text":"“Many Remainers who had not previously wanted Welsh independence wanted independence if it could mean Wales rejoining the EU,” he said. "}],[{"start":249.95000000000005,"text":"Larner added: “The Plaid strategy is copying the SNP in 2007. They have a potential majority government, and they want to show competence in government and prove they can be trusted before then pushing more strongly for independence.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":264.25000000000006,"text":"Sinn Féin has, meanwhile, repeatedly called on the UK and Irish governments to plan for a referendum on Irish reunification this decade. "}],[{"start":273.80000000000007,"text":"First Minister Michelle O’Neill said on Friday that the party welcomed the prospect of “seismic and historic change” in Scottish and Welsh elections and said the UK was “cracking at the seams”."}],[{"start":285.1000000000001,"text":"Yet most polls still showed such a so-called border vote would be defeated, with 48 per cent in favour of remaining in the UK. "}],[{"start":294.05000000000007,"text":"The nationalist party is comfortably the most popular in Northern Ireland, but its support, at 24 per cent, has dipped to a five-year low, according to a Lucid Talk poll published last week. "}],[{"start":305.95000000000005,"text":"Swinney said he would welcome co-operation with both Plaid and Sinn Féin administrations in what he predicted would be an “irreversibly” changed UK. "}],[{"start":315.70000000000005,"text":"But after 19 years in power, the challenge for the SNP veteran is to restore the Scottish government’s reputation for competence after the chaos of predecessor Humza Yousaf’s brief tenure and the scandals of Nicola Sturgeon’s later years. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":331.1,"text":"This week, Swinney appeared to water down a controversial manifesto pledge to impose price caps, suggesting supermarkets could offer cheaper staples on a voluntary basis. But he stressed he would legislate for price ceilings, despite retailers’ concerns and potential legal challenges. "}],[{"start":348.3,"text":"Given the lofty electoral summit Swinney must reach next month, many in the pro-independence movement have their eyes on the next general election, which must be held by summer 2029. "}],[{"start":359.8,"text":"Depending on the arithmetic, nationalists hope a revived SNP Westminster cohort can barter with other parties seeking to lock Nigel Farage’s Reform UK out of power."}],[{"start":371.90000000000003,"text":"Lesley Riddoch, an independence activist and broadcaster, said that at the next UK-wide election, “there will be a push for one candidate, either SNP or [pro-independence] Green, so as not to split the vote” in Scotland. "}],[{"start":385.05,"text":"While secession might be an “old story” north of the border, a Plaid administration would force wider acknowledgment of the union’s shaky foundations, she added. “Wales could be the final part of the jigsaw.”"}],[{"start":407.2,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777260600_9244.mp3"}