{"text":[[{"start":7.24,"text":"The risk of a prolonged stalemate in the Iran war is being underestimated by markets, according to the chief executive of Danish tanker group Torm, with a deadlock lasting months or even years more likely than a quick resolution."}],[{"start":19.92,"text":"Jacob Meldgaard compared the situation in the Gulf to Russia’s war in Ukraine, arguing that markets had again been too quick to assume that economic disruption would force both sides to find a solution."}],[{"start":31.36,"text":"“In 2022, a lot of people, especially in the US, for the first six months said the war in Ukraine will stop very soon because it makes no sense and it is inefficient for Europe not to get energy from Russia,” he said. “Clearly people misread how long that situation could last.”"}],[{"start":47.34,"text":"This week, oil prices have fallen due to talks between Iran and Oman to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, even while the US threatens tougher sanctions on Tehran. Freight rates between the Middle East and China remain at record highs, however."}],[{"start":61.88,"text":"“The most likely scenario right now is that Trump and the US administration have no other solution than continuing, and nor does Iran and the IRGC,” Meldgaard said. “The Gulf leadership has realised they need to prepare themselves for a prolonged situation that lasts not days or weeks but months or years.”"}],[{"start":79.36,"text":"He added: “With the US acting the way it is, I think it is a dream world to imagine the world returns to the way it was 10 years ago in the foreseeable future. I would love it but I do not deem it realistic.”"}],[{"start":91.2,"text":"His comments came as Torm, which operates almost 100 tankers carrying petrol, diesel and other refined fuels, reported a record net profit of $338mn in the second quarter, almost six times the level a year earlier, after freight rates surged during the conflict."}],[{"start":107.76,"text":"Gulf states have begun expanding their tanker fleets so that their national oil companies can continue moving crude and fuels through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iranian attacks."}],[{"start":116.84,"text":"“Owners like me, I look in the mirror every morning and ask if it feels safe for my seafarers. And I say no,” Meldgaard said. “But for a national oil company it is different. They have decided, at a strategic level, that they will not be governed by Iran, and that it is existential for them.”"}],[{"start":135.6,"text":"Meldgaard said maintaining prewar export volumes through the strait under those conditions would require substantially more ships because vessels were being used less efficiently, potentially twice as many crude supertankers and three times as many large refined fuel tankers."}],[{"start":151.96,"text":"But he added the Gulf “buying spree” was primarily a response to a regional problem and was unlikely to structurally transform the global tanker market. “What is changing is that inefficiency is quite persistent in this scenario,” he said."}],[{"start":171.16,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1787786221_8188.mp3"}