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Quantum computers, which could one day blow past the limits of today’s machines, have been a distant dream in the computing world for decades. The challenges of harnessing the weird properties of subatomic particles for computing has made them more intriguing science project than practical technology. But what if, finally, workable quantum computers are nearly within reach?
量子计算机，这类有朝一日可能远远突破当今机器极限的技术，数十年来一直是计算机领域的遥远梦想。要将亚原子粒子的奇异特性用于计算，其挑战之大，使得量子计算机更像是一个引人入胜的科学项目，而非实用技术。但如果如今，真正可用的量子计算机已近在眼前呢？
Recent technical advances have led companies like Google and IBM to predict they will be able to build full-scale quantum systems by the end of this decade. Sensing that the technology may mature years earlier than it had expected, the Pentagon has begun a study to see if any of the commercial efforts could produce results by 2033.
近期的技术进步使得谷歌(Google)和IBM等公司预测，它们将在本世纪末前建成全面规模的量子系统。美国五角大楼意识到该技术可能比预期提前数年成熟，已着手展开一项研究，以评估商业化努力能否在2033年前产生成果。
Quantum systems, when they arrive, will remain tools for specialists rather than the masses. But, in the fields where they have most impact, they could usher in a period of considerable discontinuity. The most widely used forms of encryption would be vulnerable, meaning that anyone hoping to protect today’s information from future prying eyes should already be switching to new forms of quantum-proof cryptography. The technology would put new tools into the hands of scientists who could bring breakthroughs in materials or pharmaceuticals, opening up new processes and markets or spelling doom for old ones. In finance, it could bring a better understanding of complex risks and more efficient pricing in markets.
量子系统即便问世，将仍然是专家的工具，而非面向大众。但在其影响最大的领域里，它们可能会带来显著的断代式变革。届时，目前最普遍的加密形式将变得脆弱，这意味着任何希望保护当今信息免受未来窥探的人都应该已经转向新的抗量子加密形式。该技术将为科学家提供新工具，可能带来材料或药物方面的突破，开启新的工艺和市场，或宣告旧有模式的终结。在金融领域，它有望提升对复杂风险的理解，并使市场定价更高效。
Yet it has been hard even for the companies with the most at stake to know how seriously to prepare for a technology that has always seemed beyond the horizon. Some have made it a focus of advanced research for years, without seeing results.
然而，即便是那些最切身利益攸关的公司，也很难判断应当多么认真地为这种始终似乎遥不可及的技术做准备。一些企业多年来将其作为前沿研究的重点，却始终未见成果。
Like any new technology, timing is key. Investing too early, besides being a waste of resources, risks a backlash. The history of artificial intelligence has been punctuated by “AI winters” or periods of disillusionment that followed bouts of excessive optimism. The intense competition between companies racing to build the first workable quantum computers has made this a natural breeding ground for tech hype, raising the risks of overpromising and disappointment.
和任何新技术一样，时机至关重要。过早投入不仅会浪费资源，还可能引发反弹。人工智能的发展史上就多次出现“AI寒冬”——即一轮过度乐观之后随之而来的幻灭期。如今，各家公司为抢先打造出第一台可用的量子计算机而展开激烈竞争，这使得这一领域自然成为炒作的温床，增加了过度承诺与最终失望的风险。
Advances in fundamental science have brought the first prototype quantum machines, setting the stage for an attempt to turn these designs into full-scale systems. But there are still considerable engineering challenges to be overcome, injecting uncertainty into the companies’ ambitious timetables. Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, poured cold water on the industry earlier this year when he predicted practical machines were probably still 20 years away, though he later suggested he might have been too negative.
基础科学的进步已经带来了首批量子计算机原型机，为尝试将这些设计转化为全面规模的系统奠定了基础。但仍有相当多的工程难题亟待解决，这为各公司雄心勃勃的时间表增添了不确定性。英伟达(Nvidia)首席执行官黄仁勋(Jensen Huang)今年早些时候给这一行业泼了冷水，他当时预测实用化机器可能仍需20年才会出现，尽管他随后表示自己或许过于悲观。
The interplay between quantum technology and AI complicates things further. Rapid advances in AI could make today’s computers far more capable, reducing the need for quantum machines, as Sir Demis Hassabis, head of AI at Google, has suggested. Most in the industry, though, predict a symbiosis between the two technologies that will eventually give a lift to both.
量子技术与人工智能之间的相互作用使情况更加复杂。谷歌人工智能主管德米斯•哈萨比斯爵士(Sir Demis Hassabis)指出，人工智能的快速进步可能使当今计算机的能力大幅提升，从而降低对量子计算机的需求。不过，业内大多数人仍预测，两项技术最终将形成共生关系，并相互推动发展。
Despite the uncertainties, recent advances in quantum computing should still be a spur to action. This includes working on the tools and the skills that will be needed to make the most of workable quantum machines. On the tools side, new algorithms will be needed to take advantage of the particular properties of quantum machines and make them useful in tackling a wider set of problems.
尽管前景存在不确定性，近期的量子计算进展仍应成为推动行动的动力。这包括着手开发相关工具，以及培养未来充分利用可用量子计算机所需的技能。在工具层面，需要研发新算法，以利用量子计算机的独特特性，使其在应对更广泛问题时发挥作用。
A bigger skilled workforce will also be essential. Quantum experts have already been in high demand, even before the technology reaches industrial scale. Even if it is difficult to predict precisely when the quantum era will dawn, it’s not too soon to start preparing.
更庞大的技能型人才队伍同样至关重要。即便量子技术尚未进入产业化阶段，量子领域的专家已经供不应求。即使量子时代的确切来临时间难以预测，现在开始着手准备也并不为早。