The writer is a faculty member at Yale, formerly chair of Morgan Stanley Asia, and is the author of ‘Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives’.
本文作者是耶鲁大学(Yale)教职人员,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)亚洲区前主席,著有《意外冲突：美国、中国和虚假叙事的交锋》(Accidental Conflict: America, China, and the Clash of False Narratives)
How long can it last? That always seems to be the most salient question about the Chinese economy. By defying history and logic, growth in modern China has stayed the course considerably longer than most optimists ever imagined.
这能持续多久呢？这似乎一直是中国经济中最突出的问题。既违背历史规律也不符合逻辑，现代中国一直处在经济增长的轨道上，其历时之久，就算是最乐观者也是绝对想不到的。
But as you learn quickly on Wall Street, the past invariably offers promises to be broken. That could finally be the case for China as it comes face to face with its unsustainable economic imbalances. The latest statistics hint at the severity of this problem. Not only did overall economic growth of 4.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2026 slip below the lower bound of this year’s modest 4.5 to 5 per cent target set just a few months ago, but an unfathomable dichotomy has opened up in the structure of its gigantic economy.
但是，如果你在华尔街，你很快就会明白一条道理：没有一成不变的东西。当中国不得不直面不可持续的经济失衡时，最终可能也是如此。最新统计数字折射出了这个问题的严重程度。2026年第二季度中国经济增长4.3%，低于几个月前才确定的全年增长4.5%至5%目标范围的下限——本身目标就定得不高。不仅整体经济增长不理想，其庞大经济的结构还撕开了一道深不可测的裂口。