Is the dominance of the dollar about to fade away? Donald Trump insists that “if we lost the dollar as the world currency . . . that would be the equivalent of losing a war”. Yet he himself could be the cause of such a loss. Reliance on a foreign currency depends on trust in its own soundness and liquidity. Trust in the dollar has been slowly eroding for a while. Now, under Trump, the US has become erratic, indifferent and even hostile: why would one trust a country that has launched a trade war on allies?
美元会失去它的主导地位吗？唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)坚称：“如果我们失去美元作为世界货币的地位……那将相当于输掉一场战争。”然而，他本人可能正是导致美元失去这种地位的原因。我们能否依赖一种外国货币，取决于我们能否信任这种货币本身的稳健性和流动性。而对美元的信任处于被缓慢侵蚀的状态已经有一段时间了。如今，在特朗普治下，美国变得反复无常、冷漠甚至充满敌意：一个对盟友发起贸易战的国家，为什么还会获得信任呢？
Yet, while outsiders might wish to diversify away from the dollar, they lack a compelling alternative. So, what, if anything, might replace its hegemony?
然而，尽管其他国家可能希望摆脱美元，但他们找不到替代美元的可信选项。那么，如果美元霸权真的衰落，什么可能取代它？
The dollar has been the world’s leading currency for a century. Yet the dollar itself replaced the pound sterling after the first world war, as the UK’s power and wealth declined. Objectively, the US is not declining as the UK was at that time: according to the IMF, its share in nominal global GDP was 26 per cent in 2024, against 25 per cent in 1980. Given the rise of China’s economy during that period, this is remarkable. The US also remains at the frontier of world technological development and the foremost military power. Its financial markets are still much the deepest and most liquid. Moreover, in the fourth quarter of last year, 58 per cent of global reserves were in dollars, down from 71 per cent in the first quarter of 1999, but far ahead of the euro’s 20 per cent. According to MacroMicro, 81 per cent of trade finance, 48 per cent of international bonds and 47 per cent of cross-border banking claims are still in dollars.
过去一个世纪以来，美元一直是全世界的领头羊货币。然而，美元自己就是在第一次世界大战后取代了英镑，因为当时英国的实力和财富都大不如前。客观地说，美国现在并不像当年的英国那样衰败：根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据，2024年美国名义国内生产总值(GDP)占全球的26%，而1980年的比例为25%。考虑到同期中国经济崛起，美国能够达到这样的比例相当优秀。此外，美国依旧走在全球科技发展的前沿，仍是世界头号军事强国。美国的金融市场依然是全球最深厚且流动性最强的市场。此外，去年第四季度全球储备中有58%为美元，这个比例虽然比1999年第一季度的71%有所下降，但仍远高于欧元的20%。据财经M平方(MacroMicro)的数据，81%的贸易融资、48%的国际债券以及47%的跨境银行债权仍然以美元计价。