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No financial battle plan survives first contact with enemy economies. That is clear from western sanctions on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Russia this week escalated the arm’s length conflict by threatening to keep Europe’s gas switched off until it lifts restrictions.
没有任何金融作战计划能在与敌方经济体的首次接触中幸存下来。这一点从西方在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后对其实施的制裁中可以看出。本周，俄罗斯威胁要继续切断欧洲的天然气供应，直到制裁解除，从而升级了双方之间保持一定距离冲突。
Russia’s latest broadside reflects both the strengths and weaknesses of its position.
俄罗斯最新的猛烈反击反映了其立场的优势和弱点。
Sanctions are biting less than western politicians hoped, judging from VTB. Russia’s second-largest bank said it had returned to profit in July after record losses in the first half. Its shares, and those of larger rival Sberbank, are at six-month highs.
从俄罗斯外贸银行的判断来看，制裁的影响没有西方政客希望的那么大。这家俄罗斯第二大银行表示，在上半年出现创纪录亏损后，今年7月已恢复盈利。该行及其更大竞争对手俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行(Sberbank)的股价均处于六个月高点。
Many pundits predicted a banking crisis. It has not materialised. The rouble is near five-year peaks. Inflation is reportedly falling.
许多专家预测会发生银行业危机。但这并未发生。卢布汇率接近五年峰值。通胀据报正在下降。
The caveat is that Russian financial data are suspect. A ban on ordinary financial reporting prevents normal analysis. Russian propaganda downplays the impact of sanctions, which evidently have the Kremlin rattled.
需要注意的是，俄罗斯的金融数据并不可信。对普通财务报告的禁令妨碍了正常的分析。俄罗斯的宣传淡化了显然让克里姆林宫感到不安的制裁的影响。
However, Liam Peach at Capital Economics, a UK consultancy, says data from independent private providers are consistent with official figures. A GDP contraction of 12 per cent at the onset of war was first revised to a 7 per cent fall. Peach now thinks Russia’s economy might be 4 per cent smaller this year.
然而，英国咨询公司Capital Economics的利亚姆•皮奇(Liam Peach)表示，来自独立私人提供商的数据与官方数据一致。战争爆发时预测的12%的GDP收缩首次被修正为下降7%。皮奇现在认为，今年俄罗斯经济规模可能会收缩4%。
Sanction exemptions for energy have helped hugely. So has enthusiastic purchasing by the likes of India. Lower European and US imports are buoying Russia to a record trade surplus this year.
对能源的制裁豁免起到了巨大的帮助。印度等国的狂热购买也起到了同样的作用。从欧洲和美国进口的减少，正推动俄罗斯今年实现创纪录的贸易顺差。
Liquidity support propped banks up through initial shocks. But these were hefty. Dmitry Tulin, the central bank’s deputy chair, estimated system-wide losses of Rbs1.5tn ($25bn) for the first half of the year, or 12 per cent of total bank capital. Total loans outstanding fell 9 per cent between April and July.
流动性支持支撑银行渡过了最初的冲击。但这些打击是沉重的。俄罗斯央行副主席德米特里•图林(Dmitry Tulin)估计，今年上半年，整个银行系统损失1.5万亿卢布(合250亿美元)，相当于银行总资本的12%。今年4月至7月，未偿贷款总额下降了9%。
Russia will now be hampered by its lack of access to high-tech capital goods of the sort produced in Germany. This is likely to disrupt energy extraction as the war of economic attrition grinds on.
俄罗斯现在将受到阻碍，因为它无法获得德国生产的那种高科技资本货物。随着经济消耗战的不断深入，这可能会破坏能源开采。
Russia has shown it can bear the pain of western sanctions. Western Europe must endure reprisals as robustly, or concede a historic defeat.
俄罗斯已经表明它能够承受西方制裁带来的痛苦。西欧必须以同样坚韧的态度忍受报复，否则就不得不承认历史性失败。