Why Pakistan’s military cannot solve its Imran Khan problem

{"text":[[{"start":7.15,"text":"Across Islamabad this week, authorities are already blocking roads with shipping containers in preparation for protests in support of Imran Khan."}],[{"start":15.35,"text":"More than three years after the former prime minister and cricket World Cup-winning captain was removed from office and imprisoned, Pakistan’s military-backed government appears no closer to stifling support for Khan, despite determined efforts to keep him out of the public sphere."}],[{"start":31.65,"text":"Television news channels avoid using Khan’s name on air, referring to him only as the “founder of the [opposition] Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf”, the movement he led in government from 2018 until 2023. When he was taken from prison to hospital for treatment last month, authorities staged a ruse to stop even his photo from emerging during the transfer."}],[{"start":56.3,"text":"The PTI has announced mass protests to begin on Sunday to demand his release. A global group of cricket grandees has also joined the outcry, a reflection of Khan’s ability to garner international headlines. "}],[{"start":69.05,"text":"Earlier this week, authorities arrested Khan’s sisters and other family members, citing “a grave threat to public safety” in anticipation of the march."}],[{"start":78.8,"text":"The efforts to suppress Khan and his supporters underline the scale of the challenge he poses to the country’s military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s de facto ruler, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose civilian government wields nominal power."}],[{"start":93.85,"text":"To Khan’s tens of millions of followers, he represents the best alternative to Pakistan’s military-dominated politics, where dynastic parties have presided over decades of economic mismanagement and corruption is endemic. He is widely believed to be the country’s most popular figure, and would handily win a freely contested election, according to analysts."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":115.44999999999999,"text":"Pakistan is caught in a “logjam between Khan’s popularity and the military’s insistence on ruling without legitimacy”, said Adeel Malik, associate professor at the University of Oxford."}],[{"start":126.89999999999999,"text":"Munir has been working to raise Islamabad’s profile abroad, courting the Trump administration, mediating a ceasefire between the US and Iran and strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But at home, he lacks a popular mandate and is contending with a deteriorating security situation and an economy on weak fiscal footing."}],[{"start":146.79999999999998,"text":"“The state’s fixation on sidelining Khan and his supporters makes sense from the government’s perspective, given a long and bitter confrontation and the unusually strong criticism levelled by Khan and his backers at the military,” said Michael Kugelman, a resident senior fellow for south Asia at the Atlantic Council in Washington. "}],[{"start":165.99999999999997,"text":"“But its unrelenting crackdown on Khan . . . risks fresh street mobilisation and political instability that could distract it from its domestic reform priorities and spoil a global image that’s become more positive in recent months,” he added."}],[{"start":180.94999999999996,"text":"When he came to power in 2018, Khan, now 73, enjoyed a close relationship with the military. Both shared an interest in undermining the power of two dynastic political parties. "}],[{"start":193.24999999999997,"text":"But his administration drew accusations of corruption and erratic governance, imprisoned opposition figures, and Khan fell out with the military in a power struggle."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":203.89999999999998,"text":"He was removed from office by a no-confidence vote in parliament amid an economic crisis. He has been imprisoned since August 2023 on charges ranging from corruption to terrorism that his party says are politically motivated."}],[{"start":219.2,"text":"All but one of his convictions have been suspended or overturned on appeal."}],[{"start":225.2,"text":"Uzma Khan, one of Khan’s sisters who saw him in hospital and was arrested this week, told a press conference last month that Khan had complained of inadequate medical attention and of being held in isolation."}],[{"start":239.25,"text":"She said he likened his fate to that of Mohamed Morsi, the former Egyptian president who died in a Cairo courtroom in 2019 after years in prison."}],[{"start":248.65,"text":"The government has good reason to fear Khan’s influence. When he was arrested in 2023, supporters targeted military installations, including the Corps Commander House in Lahore. Security forces responded with a widespread crackdown, locking up thousands and putting many of them on trial in anti-terrorism courts. Hundreds more went into hiding. "}],[{"start":272.05,"text":"In November 2024, when Khan’s supporters again marched on the capital, security forces opened fire on a crowd near the national parliament, killing at least a dozen, according to Khan’s party and witnesses."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":284.5,"text":"His ability to mobilise the streets has made him a risk factor for the military at the same time that it faces worsening insurgencies in the country’s restive western provinces, protests in Kashmir and sporadic hostilities with Taliban-run Afghanistan."}],[{"start":302.65,"text":"The government has responded by cracking down on dissent, according to analysts and opposition figures, passing legal changes and constitutional amendments to restrict online speech."}],[{"start":314.65,"text":"It has also put pressure on the judiciary. In 2024, six judges on the Islamabad High Court wrote to the Supreme Court accusing Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence agency of applying pressure to rule against Khan. They alleged surveillance of their homes and the abduction and torture of their relatives."}],[{"start":335.04999999999995,"text":"Pakistan is experiencing “inarguably the greatest judicial regression in its history”, said Asad Rahim Khan, a Supreme Court advocate who teaches at the Lahore University of Management Sciences."}],[{"start":347.4,"text":"He pointed to efforts to “elbow out independent judges and ensure dissent is met with zero tolerance” as well as the 2024 election, when Khan’s party was stripped of its electoral symbol, the cricket bat, which helps illiterate voters identify it."}],[{"start":362.25,"text":"Candidates loyal to Khan went on to win the most seats anyway, but the military installed Sharif, according to international observers and the opposition."}],[{"start":371.05,"text":"Across the country, Khan’s image is plastered on the backs of trucks and rickshaws, and his prisoner number — 804 — adorns roadside stalls. AI-generated videos of him addressing his followers proliferate on TikTok and X. "}],[{"start":385,"text":"“They refuse to abandon him,” Aleema Khan, another one of Khan’s sisters who was arrested this week, said of his supporters. The regime’s “fears are growing by the day”. "}],[{"start":401.2,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1790247064_3886.mp3"}