{"text":[[{"start":10.5,"text":"The US Federal Reserve looks likely to raise interest rates at its meeting next week, despite President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for cuts, as the world’s largest economy faces persistent inflation tied to energy and housing."}],[{"start":24.28,"text":"Traders in futures markets put the probability of a rate rise at more than 85 per cent after inflation data on Friday showed price pressures were stubbornly elevated in August, with the headline annual inflation rate unchanged from July at 3.4 per cent. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was 2.4 per cent, down slightly from 2.5 per cent in July."}],[{"start":49.92,"text":"Oil prices have surged to more than $100 a barrel on renewed conflict in the Middle East while investors have sent yields on Treasury bonds to multiyear highs. US government debt rose above $40tn last month, driving new anxieties among global investors about the state of US public finances."}],[{"start":69.6,"text":"Still, policymakers will be mostly concerned with prices in the economy. “Investors should be prepared for a Fed that is more willing to tighten [rates] and should recognise that inflation . . . is the Fed’s central concern right now,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at wealth management firm Glenmede."}],[{"start":87.76,"text":"Fed governor Christopher Waller has already left the door open to a rate rise. “If the incoming data for August show . . . improvement [in inflation] has been fleeting, then it may be appropriate to raise the policy rate,” he said in a speech last week. Jill R Shah"}],[{"start":101.96,"text":"Will the Bank of Japan bow to pressure for rate rises?"}],[{"start":106.76,"text":"Traders are ascribing a 75 per cent chance to the Bank of Japan raising its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point at next week’s policy meeting, from the current level of 1 per cent."}],[{"start":117.6,"text":"The meeting has been hotly anticipated by investors given its likely impact on broader financial markets, not just from the decision itself but from any signals of what is to follow."}],[{"start":128.08,"text":"Bets that the BoJ would speed up its pace of interest rate rises have been a vital factor that, along with a historic US-Japan intervention in July and August, has helped the yen recover from a four-decade low of around ¥164 to the dollar before the operation to about ¥154."}],[{"start":147.08,"text":"If the BoJ’s signalling disappoints the market, which is expecting the benchmark rate to rise by 0.5 percentage points by January, it could pile pressure back on the currency."}],[{"start":158.32,"text":"“While avoiding the impression of a preset path, the BoJ may seek to steer markets towards viewing every meeting as live depending on incoming data, partly to prevent renewed depreciation pressure,” said Barclays analysts."}],[{"start":171.28,"text":"The BoJ’s more dovish members are caught, say the analysts, between Japanese leader Sanae Takaichi’s caution on rate rises and pressure from US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent for policy tightening. Ian Smith"}],[{"start":183.08,"text":"How will the BoE respond to surging oil prices?"}],[{"start":188.2,"text":"Investors will watch for signs of a widening divide between Bank of England policymakers who favour taking action and those who prefer to “wait and see”, when its nine-member Monetary Policy Committee meets on Thursday. Rate setters are widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent."}],[{"start":207.44,"text":"The meeting will include the MPC’s annual decision on the pace of bond sales under the BoE’s quantitative tightening programme — the process of shrinking the stock of government bonds accumulated under previous quantitative easing programmes. The decision will be closely watched at a time when gilt yields and government borrowing costs are under pressure."}],[{"start":227.76,"text":"Many economists expect the BoE to slow the annual pace of QT from £70bn to £50bn. With fewer gilts maturing over the coming year, this would allow the central bank to keep the volume of active bond sales broadly in line with last year’s."}],[{"start":243.6,"text":"On interest rates, Jack Meaning, economist at Barclays, expects six MPC members to vote for no change, with Huw Pill, Catherine Mann and Megan Greene backing a quarter-point increase, repeating July’s 6-3 split."}],[{"start":257.56,"text":"But Meaning sees a risk of additional hawkish votes, with deputy governors Clare Lombardelli and Sir Dave Ramsden potentially joining those seeking higher rates."}],[{"start":266.24,"text":"“At the least we would expect Lombardelli and Ramsden to highlight in their individual paragraphs that the inflation risks had become skewed to the upside and perhaps even that the decision was becoming more finely balanced,” he said."}],[{"start":280.34,"text":"The recent sharp rise in energy prices and borrowing costs has prompted traders in swaps markets to bet on four quarter-point rate increases over the next year, up from two expected a week ago."}],[{"start":280.84,"text":"The UK’s faster than expected 0.4 per cent GDP growth in July also suggested that current interest rates might not be as restrictive as some BoE rate setters thought."}],[{"start":303.6,"text":"Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK, said: “The Bank of England will not follow the [European Central Bank] in raising rates . . . but the prospect of a synchronised global tightening cycle is growing.” Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":322.22,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789300301_8256.mp3"}