{"text":[[{"start":4.26,"text":"A lot of what we buy is, as the saying goes, diesel and dirt: stuff that comes out of the ground plus the energy required to truck it around. And diesel has become a lot more expensive: in the US, it has reached its highest level of $5.90 per gallon, according to the AAA. With no end to the Iran war in sight, fuel prices will remain elevated for some time to come: will this shift the shape of the economy to permanently reduce demand?"}],[{"start":33.02,"text":"The International Energy Agency thinks disruptions to supply across the oil world, from Iran to Russia, caused demand for crude to drop perhaps 5mn barrels a day — roughly 5 per cent — in the second quarter. Lots of that will not be permanent: mothballed plants, airline routes and economic activity all tend to come back again when snarl-ups resolve and prices fall. But long-term consumer behaviour can also be altered: the oil shock of the 1970s helped make Toyota and Honda’s smaller, fuel-efficient vehicles more popular around the world."}],[{"start":67.36,"text":"Mostly, though, structural destruction of oil demand involves investment in alternative energy sources. A good proxy for this is China’s exports of clean technology products, which include solar cells and panels, batteries and electric vehicles."}],[{"start":82.22,"text":"These have been picking up speed: solar exports in the first half of this year were up almost a quarter year on year, according to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, while the IEA reckons those of EVs more than doubled. This is partly a longer-term trend, encouraged by China’s huge manufacturing footprint and sluggish domestic demand. But the recent surge in fossil fuel prices has helped make clean technologies more competitive."}],[{"start":108.84,"text":"Just think that in Africa, where renewables often replace diesel generators, Chinese solar panels imported over the past 12 months cost $2.4bn, according to Ember analysis. That would displace diesel costing, at current prices, $10bn a year — or roughly four times as much. That sort of sum helps explain why African solar installations are forecast to grow 45 per cent this year. In the UK, meanwhile, the all-in cost of an electric vehicle — buying it and running it — now beats that of similar models with traditional combustion engines."}],[{"start":144.08,"text":"Consumers of natural gas, too, have been singed by the Hormuz crisis, a second disruption after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In particular, countries relying on imports of liquefied natural gas including South Korea, Thailand and Pakistan are increasingly turning to alternatives such as nuclear and renewables."}],[{"start":165.56,"text":"This tailwind to renewables and electric vehicles is good news, of course, for global carbon emissions. And it does suggest that the world is starting to adapt to what may be a lengthier than hoped disruption to oil supply. But the oil market is making ends meet by digging into inventories and stocks. Should the situation fail to normalise, those zippy EVs will need to accelerate further."}],[{"start":193.15,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1788844477_5009.mp3"}