{"text":[[{"start":12.32,"text":"Investors will be paying particularly close attention to US employment data on Friday, amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to contain inflation sparked by President Donald Trump’s war in Iran."}],[{"start":25.08,"text":"The Fed kept rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday. The decision was expected but chair Kevin Warsh, in his first post-meeting press conference since taking up the job, left many market participants frustrated by his stripped-back approach to communication and a lack of forward guidance. It prompted a jump in US borrowing costs and market volatility, and leaves investors more attentive than ever to signals from economic indicators."}],[{"start":51.6,"text":"Economists polled by Bloomberg expect that about 90,000 non-farm jobs will have been added to US payrolls in July, continuing the slow pace of growth registered in June and strengthening the case for holding off on rate rises."}],[{"start":65.12,"text":"A soft employment figure, combined with the strong likelihood of downward revisions of previous data, should “further refute the narrative that the labour market is retightening and could itself be a source of inflationary pressure”, Citi economist Veronica Clark wrote to clients. A cooling labour market, she added, clears the path for Fed officials to focus on inflation data when making rate decisions."}],[{"start":88.52,"text":"Clark expects the unemployment rate to rebound to 4.3 per cent in July. But uncertainty persists over rates of participation in the workforce, due to its changing demographics following Trump’s immigration crackdown."}],[{"start":102.02,"text":"The labour pool is expected to expand later this year when workers, especially young women who are caregivers, return to the workforce as the school year starts, eventually pushing unemployment above 4.5 per cent, Clark said. Michelle Chan"}],[{"start":115.8,"text":"Is China’s trade surplus peaking?"}],[{"start":119.24,"text":"China releases trade figures for July on Friday, offering further evidence as to whether the country’s enormous trade surplus will continue to narrow."}],[{"start":128.6,"text":"Economists at ING expect imports to continue to grow faster than exports, with imports up 33.6 per cent from a year earlier and exports rising 28.1 per cent. That would be a continuation of the trend from June, when imports rose 36 per cent and exports rose 27 per cent from a year earlier."}],[{"start":147.72,"text":"The surge in both values has been driven by huge global investment in AI, which is boosting demand for Chinese electrical components such as printed circuit boards and optical transceivers. It has also raised costs for goods such as memory chips, which China imports heavily."}],[{"start":165,"text":"Economists such as Adam Wolfe at Absolute Strategy Research have recently argued that China’s trade surplus has peaked. For the first six months of this year it was $576bn, below the $583bn recorded in the first half of 2025, according to Chinese customs data."}],[{"start":184.74,"text":"But the point is hotly debated. One reason for the narrowing has been a surge in Chinese imports of gold this year, according to Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He notes that, when gold imports are excluded, China’s trade surplus grew by $80bn in the first half of this year."}],[{"start":204.16,"text":"Analysts say any sustainable change in the trade balance will depend on whether Beijing takes more substantial steps to support the domestic economy. Weak domestic demand has pushed down prices and led businesses to seek out overseas markets, boosting exports and reducing imports."}],[{"start":221.28,"text":"On Thursday, senior officials said Beijing would speed up spending in the second half of the year to support domestic demand. William Sandlund"}],[{"start":228.84,"text":"Does the FTSE rally have further to run?"}],[{"start":233,"text":"The FTSE 100 index hit a string of record highs this week as investors sought havens at the end of a month marked by a heavy sell-off in tech stocks."}],[{"start":242.28,"text":"The UK blue-chip index has little tech exposure. Its heavy weighting to fossil fuels and financials also helped, given rising European interest rates and a renewed surge in oil prices due to a revival of hostilities in the Iran war."}],[{"start":256.88,"text":"But with energy prices seesawing on alternating reports of strikes and talks between the US and Iran, and as tech stocks rallied late in the week, some investors and analysts are sceptical about how long the FTSE’s rally can continue."}],[{"start":270.4,"text":"“It’s not really people buying into any UK domestic narrative, it’s very much an index composition thing that helps or doesn’t help,” said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equity strategy at Barclays. “Right now [the FTSE 100] has the right sector mix to attract flows and interest given the lack of tech and the oil exposure.”"}],[{"start":290.34,"text":"Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro research at ING, described the rally as “slightly counterintuitive”, with the Iran war still going on and the European economy “still flirting with stagnation”."}],[{"start":302.84,"text":"But Roland Kaloyan, head of European equity strategy at Société Générale, said the index would continue to benefit from its heavy weighting to commodities and financials and its low exposure to consumer discretionary sectors such as autos and luxury goods."}],[{"start":317.76,"text":"“The FTSE 100 was one of our preferred markets heading into 2026 and remains one of our positive calls,” he said. Ramsay Hodgson"}],[{"start":330.03,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1785753428_3107.mp3"}