{"text":[[{"start":8.15,"text":"The writer is professor in practice at the Global School of Sustainability at the LSE, and a former chief economist at the Bank of England and BP"}],[{"start":18,"text":"One of the hoped-for silver linings of the war in Iran and the renewed focus on energy security is that it will accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy and a more sustainable energy system. As the executive director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, argued, the war will trigger “a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future”."}],[{"start":40.45,"text":"How confident should we be that the war will usher in a faster pathway to a low-carbon world? "}],[{"start":46.150000000000006,"text":"The case for hope is clear. The war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to renewed concerns about energy shortages and a sharp increase in oil and natural gas prices, with the very real risk that prices could increase further in coming weeks and months."}],[{"start":63.650000000000006,"text":"Three-quarters of the world’s population live in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels. For those nations, there is a strong incentive to reduce their dependency on the volatility of global energy markets and switch to the relative calm of domestically produced energy. For many, that will take the form of low-carbon energy, such as wind and solar power, bioenergy, and nuclear. And there is evidence from past energy shocks to support this hope. Solar power generation in the EU increased 24 per cent in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, more than double the rate of increase seen in previous years, according to Ember Energy."}],[{"start":102.95,"text":"But there are a number of factors that may thwart or slow this accelerated shift to a more sustainable future. For some countries, especially China and India which together account for about 70 per cent of global coal consumption, the switch to domestic energy may lead to greater use of home-produced coal. For others, it may lead to increased reluctance to depend on global supply chains for clean-energy technologies, such as rare earths, batteries and photovoltaic panels."}],[{"start":130.2,"text":"The war and the ensuing energy crisis may prompt a shift in political priorities, with governments attaching greater weight to energy security. But if governments increase the importance attached to energy security, what do they downgrade? "}],[{"start":143.04999999999998,"text":"Energy policies are often framed in terms of the so-called energy trilemma — the need for governments to balance the provision of secure, affordable and sustainable energy. If governments attach greater priority to energy security (and possibly affordability), this may come at the expense of sustainability."}],[{"start":161.35,"text":"These possible trade-offs may be compounded by pressures on government finances. The energy shock is likely to slow economic growth and lead to increasing fiscal demands to cushion households and businesses and invest in greater levels of energy storage and military security, potentially crowding out the fiscal space to finance capital-intensive low-carbon energy."}],[{"start":182,"text":"Greater use of renewable energy goes hand-in-hand with the increasing electrification of the energy system. This has many attractions in terms of reduced air pollution and increased energy efficiency, as well as lower carbon emissions. But in a world of increased focus on energy security, we also need to be clear-eyed about the vulnerability of a highly electrified energy system, particularly its susceptibility to both physical and cyber attacks, and the difficulty of storing much more than a few hours of daily power consumption. What is preferable from an energy security perspective — a street full of only electric vehicles or a mix of EVs and internal-combustion engine cars? "}],[{"start":224.4,"text":"It is hard to be confident which balances of forces will prevail. Analysis by BP in its 2025 Energy Outlook — which I contributed to while working at the company — suggested that rather than decisively accelerating or slowing the energy transition, a shift to a more geopolitically fragmented world would lead to a more differentiated energy system. Some countries will fast-track their shift to low-carbon energy and greater electrification, while others double down on fossil fuels."}],[{"start":255,"text":"The hope that the current energy crisis will prompt an acceleration in the energy transition cannot be taken for granted. For some countries, with plentiful renewable resources and the ability to build out secure and stable power grids, this further episode of energy shortages and price rises may well trigger a faster shift to low-carbon energy. "}],[{"start":276.55,"text":"But for other countries, there is a need to actively engage in the possible trade-offs between energy security and sustainability. We need to try to reconcile a secure energy system with a sustainable one."}],[{"start":298.15000000000003,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777957933_7087.mp3"}