How will Germany’s Friedrich Merz build his coalition government?

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":10.2,"text":"German conservative leader Friedrich Merz spent the past two months excoriating the country’s Social Democrats — blaming them for a stagnating economy, uncontrolled illegal migration and the rise of the far right. "}],[{"start":22.04,"text":"Now that they have emerged as his only possible coalition partners, he wants to be friends again. "}],[{"start":28.049999999999997,"text":"Merz, who is poised to become chancellor after his Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won federal elections on Sunday, said a government with the SPD was “what we want”. "},{"start":39.141999999999996,"text":"He was now “determined to hold constructive, good, rapid talks” with the party of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "}],[{"start":45.92,"text":"

Who are the key players and how fast can talks conclude?

"}],[{"start":49.550000000000004,"text":"Merz indicated he would be “having talks in the next few days” with the SPD, setting himself the goal of signing a coalition agreement “around Easter”, in the second half of April. "}],[{"start":58.940000000000005,"text":"His negotiation partner will be SPD co-leader Lars Klingbeil, though Merz said he also planned to meet Scholz to ensure a smooth transition of power. "},{"start":67.28200000000001,"text":"Advisers to Merz have indicated that consultations will take place to make sure Scholz, who will remain caretaker chancellor, represents the views of the future leader abroad. "},{"start":76.087,"text":"An emergency EU summit next week to discuss European defence will be attended by Scholz. "}],[{"start":82.10000000000001,"text":"The two parties will also set up joint working groups to draft a coalition agreement. "}],[{"start":87.41000000000001,"text":"Both the SPD and the conservatives seem to be intent on moving fast. "},{"start":91.614,"text":"Klingbeil, 47, who is expected to become the new head of the SPD parliamentary group, has said his party stands “ready to have conversations” with Merz. "}],[{"start":101.27000000000001,"text":"Klingbeil said he would swiftly reorganise his party in the wake of its worst election defeat since 1887. "},{"start":107.48700000000001,"text":"“The world is very turbulent and decisions don’t wait,” he said. "}],[{"start":111.55000000000001,"text":"“We see what the new American government is doing or not doing. "},{"start":115.004,"text":"We do not know what decisions may also be made in the next few days with regard to Ukraine and Germany,” said Klingbeil, who was the party’s spokesperson on foreign affairs. "},{"start":123.659,"text":"“It is the task of German politics to make Europe strong in this historic phase. "},{"start":127.88900000000001,"text":"And this requires a social democracy that is capable of action. ”"}],[{"start":132.39000000000001,"text":"

What are the sticking points?

"}],[{"start":135.09,"text":"The CDU/CSU will focus on its pro-business economic agenda, which involves cutting taxes, slashing welfare and regulation. "},{"start":143.669,"text":"The SPD will seek to hold firm on social spending, including a plan to secure a minimum pension level, said Andreas Busch, professor of political sciences at Göttingen university. "}],[{"start":154.87,"text":"“One side will have to accept that the other can claim some successes,” he said. "},{"start":159.387,"text":"“You need a creative fudge. ”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":161.46,"text":"Another potential bone of contention is migration. "},{"start":164.627,"text":"The topic was a source of friction during the campaign between Merz and Scholz when the former tried to strong-arm the government into tightening border checks and restricting asylum by passing a motion with the help of the far-right Alternative for Germany. "}],[{"start":177.47,"text":"The parties may also clash over how to fund growing defence spending and infrastructure investment needs, while complying with the constitution’s strict limit on public borrowing. "}],[{"start":186.79,"text":"Henning Meyer, public policy professor at Tübingen university close to the SPD, said a constitutional reform of the debt brake — one of the party’s central demands — would be a crucial feature of the government agreement. "}],[{"start":199.29999999999998,"text":"The matter could be settled even before the start of coalition talks. "},{"start":203.05399999999997,"text":"Now that it is clear a CDU/CSU-SPD tie-up would not hold a Bundestag supermajority required to pass constitutional changes, Merz on Monday indicated he would explore reconvening the outgoing parliament to pass a constitutional amendment before the new legislature is installed on March 25. "}],[{"start":220.49999999999997,"text":"Another topic of discussion will be the allocation of ministries. "},{"start":224.17899999999997,"text":"The CDU has indicated its desire to run the defence ministry. "},{"start":227.90899999999996,"text":"The SPD could claim the interior ministry, for which the name of the current defence minster Boris Pistorius is circulating. "},{"start":234.57699999999997,"text":"The CDU could take the finance ministry, while the SPD could be granted the foreign ministry — with Klingbeil potentially taking up that post. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":242.85999999999996,"text":"

Who has the strongest hand?

"}],[{"start":245.78999999999996,"text":"The coalition talks could hit snags but neither of the two parties have huge leverage on the other. "}],[{"start":251.57999999999996,"text":"“The CDU has come out far stronger than the SPD from the election, but the SPD is the only suitable coalition partner for the CDU,” Busch said. "},{"start":260.30899999999997,"text":"“At least the two parties both agree that quick action is needed and both have indicated a focus on delivery. ”"}],[{"start":266.59,"text":"They have the example of Scholz’s ill-fated coalition with the Greens and the liberal Free Democrats still fresh in their minds. "}],[{"start":273.15,"text":"That three-party government quickly descended into acrimony in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and ended before term last year when Scholz fired the FDP leader and finance minister, Christian Lindner. "}],[{"start":284.94,"text":"This time round, there is talk of a programme renewed every year, which is focused on a handful of priority matters. "}],[{"start":292.21999999999997,"text":"The SPD could decide to put the coalition agreement to a member’s vote, which could add a layer of uncertainty, given the harsh campaign led by Merz against the SPD. "},{"start":301.299,"text":"Such a vote could delay the coalition talks by about two weeks, Meyer estimated. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":306.82,"text":"

How solid would this coalition be?

"}],[{"start":310.04,"text":"The tie-up between Germany’s once-largest parties can no longer be called a “Grand Coalition”, as the SPD has been relegated to third place by a resurgent far right. "},{"start":319.144,"text":"Their 52 per cent majority pales by comparison with previous iterations of this coalition structure. "}],[{"start":325.74,"text":"The first of the four so-called Grand Coalitions, which was led by CDU leader Kurt Georg Kiesinger, commanded 90 per cent in the Bundestag in 1966. "},{"start":335.069,"text":"Angela Merkel’s first of three governments with the SPD in 2005 represented a 73 per cent majority and her fourth, in 2018, relied on 56 per cent of the seats. "}],[{"start":346.44,"text":"However, both parties will be brought closer together by the fear of being further outflanked by the AfD and the far-left Die Linke. "}],[{"start":353.98,"text":"“It may even be our last chance” to regain voters’ trust again, Merz said on Monday. "}],[{"start":359.8,"text":"“I know that this will be difficult . . . but I am counting on the SPD to recognise that this is urgently needed,” he added. "},{"start":366.104,"text":"“If we do not succeed in this parliamentary term, then we will not be talking about another normal change of government in Germany in 2029. ”"}],[{"start":373.83,"text":"Data visualisation by Martin Stabe "}],[{"start":376.28999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftmailbox.cn/album/194211-1740474457.mp3"}